Nuri Şahin's Impact at Dortmund: Stats, Struggles, and Success

With just one week left before the Bundesliga winter break, Borussia Dortmund stands in 8th place, 11 points off the pace set by Bayern Munich. Under Nuri Şahin, the team has played 21 matches across all competitions, including a tough 1-0 loss to Wolfsburg in the German Cup. Despite the lows, this season has had its moments, just like last season's Champions League journey. It has been both a transition period and a challenging season for Dortmund fans, with more to come.

Nuri Şahin, born in Lüdenscheid just a short 50-minute drive from Signal Iduna Park and a product of Dortmund's youth system, was always destined to be part of the club's DNA. When Borussia Dortmund’s board decided to back Edin Terzic during a turbulent season, they brought in Nuri Şahin and Sven Bender as assistant coaches over the midseason break. The objective was to strengthen the coaching staff and ensure a smooth transition for the next season.

As Sven Bender eventually left to take an assistant coach job at third-division SpVgg Unterhaching, Nuri Şahin stayed on to continue his childhood dream. From a promising young talent to a manager with big shoes to fill, Nuri Şahin’s journey with Dortmund has come full circle. Since Jürgen Klopp left in 2015, Dortmund’s had a revolving door of managers, Nuri Şahin now stepping in as the eighth in just nine years from Thomas Tuchel to Marco Rose, and with Edin Terzic at the helm twice, the revolving door of managers tells its own story. But let's focus on the present: Nuri Şahin, the latest to carry Dortmund's legacy, guiding the team through the highs and lows of this season.

Figure 1: Borussia Dortmund Managers – Employment Duration, Matches, and Points Per Game

Preseason Planning and Transformations

Hans-Joachim Watzke, Borussia Dortmund's CEO for over two decades, has announced his intention to step down in 2025. Before he departs, it’s clear his priority will be restoring stability and recapturing the spirit of the club’s golden years between 2008 and 2015. Renowned for nurturing young talent into world-class players, Dortmund has recently extended this philosophy to its coaching staff. By entrusting Nuri Şahin with a pivotal role, the club is not just looking forward but reconnecting with its core DNA and proud traditions.

There is no doubt that Dortmund invested a lot in the summer transfer period and still can not say that they closed the gap on Bayern München and last season's title holders Bayer Leverkusen. Borussia Dortmund underwent significant changes ahead of the season, including by the departure of two locker-room leaders. Mats Hummels and Marco Reus, synonymous with the club’s identity for years, left on free transfers, signaling the end of an era. Youssoufa Moukoko, a talent long burdened with sky-high expectations, was loaned to Ligue 1 side Nice, while Niclas Füllkrug, last season’s joint-top scorer with 15 goals alongside Donyell Malen, moved to West Ham for €27 million. As Dortmund had signed Füllkrug from Bremen for €17.25 million just a year earlier, the sale represents a very smart decision, generating about a €10 million profit on a 31-year-old striker.

As a replacement for Füllkrug, Dortmund turned to Serhou Guirassy who has proved a highly productive season for Stuttgart with 28 goals. Guirassy's impressive finishing abilities made him a valuable addition to the squad, promising to strengthen Dortmund's attacking lineup. His ability to consistently find the back of the net suggested that he could fill the position left by Füllkrug and potentially carry Dortmund to a successful season. Acquired for €17.5million million release clause, Guirassy has been nothing short of a revelation, a move that would win approval at almost any deal table. His finishing, chance creation and ball progression skills make him an invaluable asset to any team.

Figure 2: Borussia Dortmund Squad Changes – 2024/25 Season.

In the back line, Dortmund addressed long-standing deficiencies by signing Waldemar Anton from Stuttgart. Under Sebastian Hoeneß’s guidance, Anton had evolved into one of the league’s standout defenders and was brought in to tighten up the defence that had often been their Achilles’ heel. Additional reinforcements included Maximilian Beier from Hoffenheim, Pascal Groß from Brighton, and a promising fullback Yan Couto on loan from Manchester City with an obligation to buy. Dortmund began the season with a restructured squad, familiar faces, and young, hungry players, ready to embrace a period of transition. However, navigating this transition period is not without its challenges. Integrating new signings into the team's existing dynamics requires patience and can initially disrupt on-field chemistry. Also, the departure of key leaders like Hummels and Reus leaves a gap in experience and leadership that younger players will need to step up and fill. This presents an opportunity for younger players to grow and develop but also puts them under pressure to realize their potential rapidly. Fortunately, with Nuri Şahin and his experienced staff at the helm, Dortmund have the leadership needed to nurture talents while sustaining their competitive status in the league. As Nuri Şahin has stated before the season has begun: patience and time will be the key principles of the season for Dortmund, embracing these principles could be the key to unlocking Dortmund's potential. As always, the Yellow Wall will play its part, backing the team and staff with passion and loyalty. Then, we’ll see how the season unfolds.

Statistical Showdown: Terzic vs. Sahin - Dortmund's Battle for Brillance

When Terzic’s Dortmund relied on high-energy football and individual brilliance, Nuri Şahin’s version looked calmer, more capable, and potentially more successful. It is important to emphasize that, despite the unsatisfactory results in Bundesliga, the statistics suggest that Şahin's approach has the potential to yield better results in the long run, but it remains to be seen if he can turn those potential results into reality. A winter camp in +20 degrees Antalya could be just the thing the team needs to reset and refocus, allowing them to come into the season with a renewed sense of purpose and determination.

Figure 3: Comparative Performance Analysis of Edin Terzić and Nuri Şahin at Borussia Dortmund.

The general insight from the graph is that both Terzic and Şahin exhibit similar statistical outputs in their tactical plans. Their points-per-game, as well as goals scored and conceded, are highly comparable. However, Şahin’s side has shown greater scoring capability in the Champions League during the first six games this season compared to the previous year. This improvement, though, comes with a trade-off, as Nuri Şahin’s team also concedes more goals on the European stage. This shows Şahin's team has improved their ability to score, but have also become more vulnerable defensively. It will be interesting to see how the team adapts to this shift in focus and performance.

Defensively, Terzic’s side appears more stable, with higher averages in blocks, interceptions, and clearances. They also commit fewer defensive errors (7), while Şahin’s team remains more vulnerable to defensive mistakes (14), which often result in serious problems in their goal. Şahin will need to find a way to improve his team's defensive efforts if they want to maintain their improved attacking form. A better on-field communication, positioning, and organization will be key to achieving this.

On the positive side, Şahin’s set-piece coach seems to have had a notable impact, with the team facing fewer shots from set-pieces both domestically and internationally. This was part of Nuri Şahin's plan before the season started, who insistently hired Alex Clapham, a set-piece specialist who previously worked for Genoa, Vasco da Gama and Southampton. Set-pieces were annoying last season, even resulting in a goal conceded from a corner in the Championship Final against Real Madrid. Set-piece organization is not just about attacking and as we see defense is equally crucial.

Offensively, the addition of Pascal Groß has had a significant influence on Şahin’s team, leading to an increase in crosses, shot-creating actions (SCAs), and touches in the penalty area. Moreover, Dead Balls xGCR (Expected Goals Conversion Rate) metric highlights a clear improvement in attacking efficiency under Nuri Şahin, with the team scoring at least 30% more goals than their expected chances suggest. A deeper analysis of those stats will follow in another chart.

Real Game Changers: Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Pascal Groß

Traditionally, Borussia Dortmund is a club that develops the next big stars. They have consistently raised young talents who have risen on to achieve success at the highest levels of football. With a strong focus on youth development and scouting, Dortmund has been instrumental in the careers of players like Jadon Sancho, Erling Haaland, Jude Bellingham, Christian Pulisic, and many more. Now it looks like we have a potential challenger Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, a Berkshire Reading-born talent who joined Borussia Dortmund's academy from Manchester City's.

After having spent two seasons with Dortmund's U19 team, he has gained promotion to Dortmund's senior team. Gittens has played most of his minutes (1437) and provided nine goals, three assists since Nuri Şahin joined Dortmund this season. Known for his speed and skill on the ball, he has quickly made a name for himself in Dortmund's ranks. His performances have drawn comparisons to former Dortmund stars, and he is considered one of the most promising prospects in European football. Jamie Bynoe-Gittens, much like Sancho and Pulisic, possesses exceptional dribbling skills and the ability to change the pace of the game with his quick turns of speed. His flair and creativity on the field remind of the early days of Dortmund's past stars, making him a promising talent to watch. We have analysed both P.Gross and his season stats and impressed what we have seen so far!

Figure 4: Pascal Groß and Jamie Bynoe-Gittens – Key Figures for Dortmund in 2024/25.

Jamie Bynoe-Gittens demonstrates exceptional dribbling skills, with a top 6.31 average in progressive carries and a top 4.51 average in successful take-ons, showcasing his ability to advance the ball into attacking areas. His contribution to creating scoring opportunities is evident as he created 2.5 time more goals than expected (5 goals from 2 xG) and a remarkable 66.7% success rate in tackling dribblers, which is well above the Bundesliga average of 42.6%.

Based on numbers, Pascal Groß’s proficiency in passing with a pass attempt rate in the top 84% (83.59) of the Bundesliga, significantly higher than the league average of 51.29. He excels in key plays, averaging 2.43 key passes per match. His ball movement stands out with 7.86 crosses and 26.5 final-third touches per match indicating his role in orchestrating plays from deeper positions. The statistics suggest that Pascal Groß’s transfer has been the most positive development for Borussia Dortmund's midfield in recent times. He transcends the role of a traditional defensive midfielder, functioning as a versatile midfielder with exceptional passing skills. It is clear that both players' performances are pivotal figures in Borussia Dortmund's strategy for the 2024-2025 season.

Malen and Brandt: The Rise and Fall of Dortmund's Creative Forces

While working on our analysis, we noticed a decline in performance, and upon closer look, we identified significant differences in the form of last season’s most efficient players, Julian Brandt and Donyell Malen.

Figure 5: Julian Brandt and Donyell Malen – Performance Comparison (2023/24 vs. 2024/25).

This chart paints a vivid picture of the evolving performances of Donyell Malen and Julian Brandt for Borussia Dortmund, comparing their key statistics from the 2023-2024 (black bars) and 2024-2025 (yellow bars) Bundesliga seasons. For Malen, the numbers tell a story of regression. His Shot-Creating Actions (SCA), a key indicator of attacking creativity, dropped sharply from 3.74 to just 1.5, highlighting a significant decrease in his ability to influence the team's offensive output. Similarly, his Expected Goal Conversion Rate (xGCR) fell from 1.38 to 0.89, suggesting a dip in efficiency in turning chances into goals. Even his key passes (KP), critical in setting up teammates for scoring opportunities, dropped from 1.11 to zero, a striking big decline that may raise questions about his role and form this season.

Julian Brandt’s numbers, while more robust overall, also reflect a downward trend. His SCAs, which were an impressive 5.38 in 2023-2024, fell to 4.34, signaling a slight decrease in his attacking output. His xGCR also saw a marginal decline from 1.56 to 0.53, which indicates a drop in finishing and creativity. Even his key passes, though still impactful, dropped from 3.24 to 2.59. Both players struggled to make significant gains in crosses into the penalty area (Crs-Pen), with Malen showing a small decrease from 0.3 to 0.17 while Brandt lost momentum slightly.

These stats tell an interesting story of two key Dortmund players struggling to find consistency and form. Malen's sharp drop-off in several metrics raises concerns about his confidence or tactical adjustments, while Brandt, though still a pivotal creative force, may need to rediscover the extra spark that made him a standout in the previous campaign. As Dortmund looks to push for Bundesliga dominance, the performances of these "anti-heroes" could play a decisive role in shaping their fortunes this season.

Finally, while Borussia Dortmund's Nuri Şahin era appears to have started turbulently, there are plenty of promising signs for the future. The redesigned Champions League format and an increased number of matches, combined with a streak of unlucky injuries, heavily impacted the October fixtures. The squad's defensive scheme was also affected by additional injuries (Süle, Anton, Schlotterbeck, Ryerson, Couto), which could result in defensive reinforcements for the winter transfer window.

Apart from that, the team's away performance must improve; it is impossible to compete in the league without winning away matches. As well, the expected resurgence of underperforming stars such as Brandt, Malen, and Adeyemi, coupled with increasing contributions from young talents like Duranville, Gittens, Reyna and Beier, could make Dortmund a more aggressive and capable side as the season progresses.

On paper, Nuri Şahin possesses all the qualities to become an influential manager. By uniting the team’s energy and harmony with some additions and drawing maximum support from his coaching staff, a bright future lies ahead for both Dortmund and Şahin himself. Only time will reveal whether Nuri Şahin can transform promise into triumph, but the journey ahead is sure to be interesting.